Alright everybody! Let's find out how wrong I'll be this year!!!
Okay, this is the first time I've written this process out, so let me explain how I normally make these predictions. I make two picks: one that I think will win, and one I think could pull an upset. While I haven't seen every nominated movie this year, I tend to base my choices on what I
have seen, the outcome of other awards ceremonies, Internet rumors, and, sometimes, basic top-of-the-head guessing. My opinion of the movies and performances nominated is completely taken out of this (I tend to disagree with the Academy at times; if I had it my way,
Up would have won Best Picture last year, and
Inception would win almost everything this year!). I also don't guess in every category, 'cause what do I know about documentaries, short films, or foreign films? I'll analyze my choices on the categories I'm most confident in, then just list of some of the others I think I can pick.
So let's start with the big one:
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
This is the second year that the Academy has nominated ten films in this category, and, once again, only five are considered serious contenders: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The King's Speech, and The Social Network, (though some might debate True Grit in place of Inception). For me, I gotta go with the flow of the tide. The Social Network has been the clear lead in the majority of other awards, so it's more than likely the winner here. However, The King's Speech has slowly started building up some steam. If any of the other movies can pull off a surprise victory, it's that one.
My pick: The Social Network
If not, then: The King's Speech
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Thankfully, three of the four acting categories have very clear winners this year. This one has Colin Firth's name written all over it. The only one who could possibly take it from him is Jeff Bridges, but he won the award last year, and while he was great in True Grit, his performance hasn't gotten the two-years-in-a-row praise that others have received in the past. Firth all the way!
My pick; Colin Firth
If not, then: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman. Hands down. No question. No doubt. Natalie Portman. What? I have to pick a back-up? Uh, ok, um....Jennifer Lawrence. I think she's the main reason Winter's Bone is nominated, anyway.
My pick: Natalie Portman
If not, then: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale,
The Fighter
John Hawkes,
Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner,
The Town
Mark Ruffalo,
The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush,
The King's Speech
This is a tighter, much-debated race, but I still think Christian Bale is the clear lead. Geoffrey Rush is hot on his heels, however, and is the only one who really has a chance of taking it from him.
My pick: Christian Bale
If not, then: Geoffrey Rush
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams,
The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter,
The King's Speech
Melissa Leo,
The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld,
True Grit
Jacki Weaver,
Animal Kingdom
Here's where I take a somewhat unconventional stance. Melissa Leo had been the clear favorite to win this category, due to all the other awards she has won. However, this year there was an unexpected nomination for Hailee Steinfeld in
True Grit. In most years, surprise nominees still tend to get overlooked, but this one makes me pause. Steifeld has been a critical favorite for this performance; heck, she's basically the
lead, carrying the movie more so than even Jeff Bridges. Because she's recieved such praise, I think this nomination has given her the clear opportunity to take the prize. Maybe the Academy will still go with the flow and give it to Leo, but I have a strong gut feeling about this one.
My pick: Hailee Steinfeld
If not, then: Melissa Leo
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky,
Black Swan
David O. Russell,
The Fighter
Tom Hooper,
The King's Speech
David Fincher,
The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Cohen,
True Grit
I have to go on a rant real quick about what I feel is the biggest snub of the nominations this year: why on EARTH is Christopher Nolan not nominated for
Inception?!? It's the most brilliant work of his career, one of the best films nominated, and was one of the biggest hits among critics AND audiences. This is one of the best directors working in the film industry today, and it seems as though he was passed over so that the Academy could nominate the Cohen Brothers again, who seem to find some way of getting nominated for alomost all of their movies. Now, I am a Cohen Brothers fan, and I thought
True Grit was great, but it wasn't as great as the other serious contenders, and the Cohens have done better work. What movie is Christopher Nolan going to have to make in order to get the recognition he deserves?
Okay, now that
that's out of my system:
I gotta go with the age-old method with this category: go with the Best Picture winner. So my guess is that David Fincher will win for
The Social Network. As for my back-up pick, though, it could go one of two ways. On the one hand, Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild Award for
The King's Speech, and could pull off a repeat victory here. On the other hand, there have been whisperings of Darren Arronosky pulling an upset. Looks like this is the one category where I'm gonna cheat (Hey! My blog!) and pick more than one back-up.
My pick: David Fincher
If not, then: Tom Hooper or Darren Arronofsky
Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
This is
Inception's strongest chance at winning a major category and would be its most deserved. It has the most thought and depth put into its story and concept than any of the other nominees. It could still go to nominated darling
The King's Speech, but I'm really pulling for Nolan here.
My pick: Inception
If not, then: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
I think
The Social Network has clear victory here; Aaron Sorkin is a master of dialogue, and it showed in his screenplay. However, the Cohens have shown their skills as writers time and time again, so if there's one nominee that could pull an upset, it's
True Grit. Also, could someone for the life of me explain how
Toy Story 3 is an
adapted screenplay?
My pick: The Social Network
If not, then: True Grit
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Toy Story 3: It's Pixar, and it's nominated in Best Picture and Adapted (wtf?) Screenplay. Those are pretty clear indicators.
How to Train Your Dragon is an incredibly worthy back-up, though.
My pick: Toy Story 3
If not, then: How to Train Your Dragon
Best Original Score
John Powell,
How to Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer,
Inception
Alexandre Desplat,
The King's Speech
A.R. Rahman,
127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross,
The Social Network
The fun thing about the music categories is that you don't really have to have seen the movies; you can just get on iTunes and listen to samplings of the nominees! That's how I went about making my picks for these next two categories.
But first, I have another snub rant: Daft Punk for
TRON: Legacy, anyone? It was a terrific blend of techno and traditional orchestrations. At first I didn't understand why it was left out...then I listened to
The Social Network's score. It kind of takes the same approach to a more intimate story, but in my opinion, Daft Punk did it better. In fact, if they were nominated, I think they might stand a pretty good chance of winning.
But major kudos to the Academy for nominating
How to Train Your Dragon, which I think will win. John Powell's celtic-influenced fantasy score has the most spirit of all the nominees, breathing life into its story as well as setting the tone. Recognition could also be given to Hans Zimmer for
Inception, some of his best work which has become just as memorable as it's movie (BRRRRAAAMMMM!!!), but ultimately it's Powell's score that leaves more of an impression
My pick: How to Train Your Dragon
If not, then: Inception
Best Original Song
"Coming Home" from
Country Strong
"I See the Light" from
Tangled
"If I Rise" from
127 Hours
"We Belong Together" from
Toy Story 3
This one's pretty tough. Ultimately, I have a gut feeling that "Coming Home" will win. I know the Academy picked a country song last year ("The Weary Kind" from
Crazy Heart), but it seems like the strongest possible candidate. Plus, this is the songwriting team's (Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey) first nomination, whereas all of the other nominees (Alan Menken, A.R. Rahman, Randy Newman) have already won the category in the past for (honestly) better work (not saying these songs aren't good, but they're no "A Whole New World," "Jai Ho," or "If I Didn't Have You."). However, when trying to chose a back-up, Randy Newman's always a safe bet.
My pick: "Coming Home"
If not, then: "We Belong Together"
Technical Awards
To wrap this up, here's a run-down of my guesses for these categories:
Best Art Direction
My pick: Alice in Wonderland
If not, then: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Best Cinematography
My pick: Black Swan
If not, then: True Grit
Best Costume Design
My pick: Alice in Wonderland
If not, then: The Tempest
Best Film Editing
My pick: The Social Network
If not, then: Black Swan
Best Makeup
My pick: The Wolfman
If not, then: Barney's Version
Best Sound Editing
My pick: TRON: Legacy
If not, then: Inception
Best Sound Mixing
My pick: Inception
If not, then: True Grit
Best Visual Effects
My pick: Inception
If not, then: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
(I was wondering at first why
TRON: Legacy wasn't nominated, but then I remembered: Creepy CG Young Jeff Bridges....didn't really help 'em, did he?)
So those are my thoughts. Am I an Oscar expert? By no means. Am I right? We'll see, won't we?
Agree? Disagree? Comment!
